Yes. Fangraphs uses the component numbers so its projections will be closer to FIP each time. BR uses performance more so I guess if one thought Nola would have a consistently low BABIP and high swing/miss rate then 4 WAR could easily underestimate him.
All these are regression to the mean though. So players with a good year are expected to get worse (like Nola) and players with a bad year but solid history might be projected to improve. Pivetta and Velasquez look good in these projections simply because they miss lots of bats and stuff>luck when you project.
The upside on Velasquez is worth spending lots of time to try to find. I saw him a couple of times in Spring Training and the stuff was great but the location is poor. He is not as good as Max Scherzer, but there are some similarities in terms of stuff. Scherzer did not become great until he was 27. Jacob de Grom did not even make the majors till he was 26. Velasquez turns 27 in June. Clearly he has a shorter leash this season than in the past, but he is really important to the team. His lack of success would most likely lead to a trade (rather than seeing if the AAA guys were any good).